[Evil Vito]

We’re less than a week away from voting closing for the All Star Game, and presumably the player ballot has already been done or will be very soon so the managers can make their picks. I believe next week is when they’ll reveal the initial rosters anyway, so I’ll continue my annual tradition of guessing how the rosters will shake out. Gives me a good excuse to be a stat nerd and look through the league.

Keep in mind this isn’t necessarily who I think SHOULD make the team, but how I think it will play out based on how the voting is conducted. The fans elect the starting lineups, the players elect a backup at each position, 5 starting pitchers, and 3 relievers, and the manager fills out the rest and picks the Final Vote guys. Besides, the rosters are bound to even change beyond this as players drop out due to injury or ineligibility. Anyway, let’s get to it:


National League

Fan-Elected Starters
C: Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
1B: Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks
2B: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
3B: Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers
OF: Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers
OF: Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
OF: Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers

I just went with the current leaders from the most recent polling update this week. Goldschmidt, Tulowitzki, and Puig are no-doubters to start at their positions. There are better options to start at C and 2B than Molina and Utley, but both were going to make the team anyway – Molina because he’s Molina and Utley because nobody else from the Phillies deserves it. Todd Frazier has been the best 3B in the NL by far but isn’t even in the top 5 of voting, Ramirez has a slim lead but Milwaukee is on a voting blitzkrieg so I think he’ll make it. That’s why I also think Gomez will hang onto the 3rd OF spot, he and McCutchen are certainly both deserving. I think Giancarlo Stanton should be in the starting lineup but it might work out better that he doesn’t get voted in since can simply DH instead while the better defenders play the field.


Player Balloting
C: Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers
1B: Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
2B: Dee Gordon, Los Angeles Dodgers
SS: Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs
3B: Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds
OF: Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies
OF: Michael Morse, San Francisco Giants
OF: Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins
SP: Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
SP: Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
SP: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
SP: Alfredo Simon, Cincinnati Reds
SP: Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
RP: Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
RP: Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers
RP: Huston Street, San Diego Padres

Stanton is pretty much guaranteed to get elected, and as mentioned above he should probably be the NL’s DH and hopefully be in the Home Run Derby. I think Frazier will get a lot more respect from the players than he got from the fans. Lucroy has been better than Molina this year. Gordon’s blazing speed should win him a ton of votes from the players. Blackmon and Morse have been big surprises this year, way better than anybody could have expected. And how about those Cubs? Normally I’d say a last place team shouldn’t get 2 reps, but I think the circumstances are right for it to happen. Rizzo is having an incredible season, just way too good to pass up. Castro and Hanley Ramirez are having really similar seasons, but Castro has still been better so I’ll say the players give him some love in spite of his team.

From the pitching side, Wainwright, Cueto, and Bumgarner would seem to be locks to get voted in straight away. Kershaw missed a good chunk of the season, but with 2 Cy Youngs, a no-hitter, and still being crazy good this year, I would be shocked if he didn’t get the player support. Simon has been a huge surprise this season and I think the players vote him in as he’s at the top of the NL in wins. For the relievers, Kimbrel still has his reputation and insane strikeout rate, K-Rod is having himself a career rejuvenation, and Street hasn’t blown a save yet.


Manager Selections
C: Evan Gattis, Atlanta Braves
1B: Justin Morneau, Colorado Rockies
2B: Daniel Murphy, New York Mets
OF: Justin Upton, Atlanta Braves
SP: Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers
SP: Tim Hudson, San Francisco Giants
SP: Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals
SP: Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals
RP: Jean Machi, San Francisco Giants

Mike Matheny’s first task is to make sure every team has a rep. While David Wright might be the most well-known player on the Mets, Murphy has clearly been their best everyday player so he rightfully gets the nod. The poor first place Nationals don’t have a rep yet either, so breakout pitcher Tanner Roark gets tabbed for a spot.

Anthony Rendon would give the Nats another rep, but there are too many hitters having better seasons, which is why Gattis and Morneau get picked. I think Matheny will also want to take another OF especially if Stanton is the DH, and I can’t see him taking Ryan Braun with his controversy, so Justin Upton is in. Two more Giants get in as the highly respected Hudson is picked, as is Machi who has been ridiculous as a set-up guy. Greinke is selected in a tough call over Josh Beckett. One spot left and with so many good starters in the mix, we haven’t gotten a homer pick yet so I think that’ll be the tiebreaker for Lance Lynn.


Final Vote Candidates
SP: Henderson Alvarez, Miami Marlins
SP: Josh Beckett, Los Angeles Dodgers
RP: Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
SP: Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Cubs
SP: Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves

The NL is just loaded with starting pitchers that could have easily been All Stars, enough so that I think Matheny could very easily just load up his Final Vote list with them. I threw Rosenthal in as well as a way of Matheny rewarding one of his guys, would have been Michael Wacha but he just landed on the DL. If Matheny does decide to put position players on his list, I imagine Hanley Ramirez, Freddie Freeman, and Neil Walker will all receive consideration.




American League

Fan-Elected Starters
C: Derek Norris, Oakland Athletics
1B: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
2B: Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners
SS: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
3B: Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics
OF: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
OF: Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
OF: Melky Cabrera, Toronto Blue Jays
DH: Nelson Cruz, Baltimore Orioles

Like with the NL, I stuck with the current vote leaders, the one exception being at C. Matt Wieters is somehow still in the lead there despite not playing in 2 months. Still, Norris is gaining on him and will likely be the starter anyway even if Wieters gets elected. That should be 2 starters for the A’s, whose fans have done a great job ensuring Donaldson isn’t snubbed again this year. Miguel Cabrera, Cano, Trout, and Bautista are all winning handily and rightly so. There was no way on God’s green Earth that Jeter wasn’t getting the start in his final season despite his crappy numbers. Not sure why Cruz is on the ballot as a DH since he’s played the field more than he’s DHed, but he’s winning that race which in turn frees up a OF spot for Melky Cabrera to get elected, not sure the players would have put him on the team following his steroid controversy a couple of years ago.

Player Balloting
C: Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
1B: Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox
2B: Ian Kinsler, Detroit Tigers
SS: Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox
3B: Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
OF: Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians
OF: Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland Athletics
OF: Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles
DH: Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays
SP: Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays
SP: Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers
SP: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
SP: Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics
SP: Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
RP: Dellin Betances, New York Yankees
RP: Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
RP: Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox

Much like with Cruz, Encarnacion has played the field way more than DH, but I think the players vote from the same ballot as the fans and he’s listed as a DH there. I can’t see the players not voting for the HR/RBI leader so he’s in as backup DH which frees up the rookie powerhouse Abreu to be named as backup 1B. Jones, Kinsler, and Beltre get in for reputation and they’re all having good seasons. Alexei is having the best year for any AL SS and probably would start if it weren’t Jeter’s final year. I thought about Bryan McCann who always seems to make the All Star Game, but really a guy hitting .220 shouldn’t be there, Perez is much better. Brantley gets respect for his breakout season. Poor Brandon Moss is a victim of also being listed as DH on the ballot, but his loss is his teammate Cespedes’ gain.

I’d be stunned if Tanaka, Hernandez, Buehrle, and Darvish aren’t all voted in by the players. Can’t argue with any of them. Kazmir got destroyed in his last start but has still been really good, enough so that I think he gets voted in by the players as well. Holland’s been the best closer in the AL this year and Uehara has picked right up where he left off last year. I’m not sure if a non-closing reliever has ever gotten in via player ballot, but if Betances doesn’t with the kind of year he’s having then I’m pretty sure nobody ever will.


Manager Selections
2B: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
DH: Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers
SP: Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
SP: Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
SP: Phil Hughes, Minnesota Twins
SP: Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
RP: Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays

3 teams left without a rep. Altuve is the easy choice for the Astros, gives some speed for the bench and he’s easily been their best player. Hughes has had a big bounceback season for the hometown Twins. With only 2 closers on the roster I feel bad snubbing Sean Doolittle and Fernando Rodney, among others. But the Rays do need a rep so I reckon it’ll be McGee.

Martinez gets in as the only true DH on the roster because he has been amazing, but that being said I guarantee John Farrell will consider taking David Ortiz as a loyalty pick. I do think he’ll reward Lester with a spot, not unlike Jim Leyland rewarded Justin Verlander last year. Lester hasn’t been bad or anything but there are better options such as Dallas Keuchel, Sonny Gray, and Jesse Chavez. Sale is kinda like Kershaw, missed time but still incredible when he’s on the mound so Farrell gives him the nod. Richards gets the last spot with a breakout campaign and because the Angels deserve a second rep anyway.


Final Vote Candidates
2B: Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury, New York Yankees
OF: Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
OF: Brandon Moss, Oakland Athletics
DH: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox

If Farrell doesn’t take Big Papi for the roster, I’d be really surprised if he wasn’t given a chance to be voted in. Dozier gives Minnesota fans a chance to have a second Twin elected for the game at Target Field. Moss, Gordon, and Ellsbury unfortunately get squeezed out in a deep OF pool this year. Most of the pitchers I mentioned earlier (Keuchel, Chavez, Gray, Doolittle, Rodney) should be in play if Farrell wants some arms on his Final Vote list.