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True, Abraham and Sasha did seem to have some mileage on their character development, but that is actually part of the reason I think it was one of them. They've made us fall in love with Abraham this season, and this show has a penchant for making you like a character only to take them away suddenly. However, I think Sasha could be even more likely simply because it would not only fuck with us the viewers but also with Abraham. Rather than taking away the character they made us care about they could take away everything that's made said character worth caring about. Could lead to a relapse for him, or it could lead to even more character progression as he overcomes the loss.
Eugene I feel is a little too obvious, especially with his little heroic moment there toward the end. I just don't see it being him. It wouldn't have enough impact in my eyes, not for such a big cliffhanger anyway.
Daryl is too much of a staple for the show. I can't see AMC even entertaining the idea of letting him die simply due to his appeal to the masses. He's one of the selling points of the show at this point.
Maggie would be an interesting pick, but you can clearly hear her yelling as the person taking the beating is hit. Unless the yelling is all in the person's head it physically can't be her.
Michone could be a dark horse in this. It would be a massive shock to fans, and it would make sense with the line where Negan says to cut out Carl's eye if he screams since I can't think of any reason Negan would think Carl would scream unless it was over Michone who he has a major connection with. Of course I can't think of any way Negan would know about their relationship so I'm pretty confident it's not her.
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