[Evil Vito]

With the fan ballots now closed it’s time for my annual exercise in predicting the All Star Game rosters before they get formally revealed in a few days. As always, I don’t agree with all of these selections, however I’m making the predictions based on the process in which the teams are currently constructed. You have the fan-elected starters, player-elected reserves and pitchers, and the managers filling out the rest all while making sure each team has representation. It’s a complicated process that I think could be handled better, and I will point out some of the flaws in my projected roster as we go along.

I’ll start with the NL, because Rob Manfred thought it would be a good idea to have the Senior Circuit be the road team in one of their own ballparks.



National League

Starting Lineup (8)

C: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
1B: Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
2B: Ben Zobrist, Chicago Cubs
SS: Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs
3B: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
OF: Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets
OF: Dexter Fowler, Chicago Cubs
OF: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

In the final polling update this week, the closest race was at catcher where Buster Posey was trailing Yadier Molina but closing in quickly. Giants fans have been great at the polls in recent years and Molina is having a largely dreadful season, so I’m thinking Posey will pass Molina in these last few days.

The only projected starter here that I disagree with is Addison Russell, who while great defensively still has a long way to go to develop as a hitter. His presence on the team will likely deny one of Corey Seager, Trevor Story, or Aldemys Diaz a spot on the roster. Other than that though, this is a fair lineup. Sure you can argue the merits of Zobrist vs. Daniel Murphy or Bryant vs. Nolan Arenado, but all of those guys are likely to make the team anyway so it doesn’t really matter.

Player Balloting: Position Players (8)

C: Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
1B: Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks
2B: Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals
SS: Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
3B: Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
OF: Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds
OF: Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
OF: Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates

Murphy and Arenado, as mentioned, are highly likely to be voted on to the roster as backups at their respective positions. Goldschmidt and Gonzalez also feel like safe bets. It’s a toss up as to who will make it between Seager or Story as the backup shortstop but I’m tentatively going to guess Seager fares better in the polling.

Even though I alluded to Molina having a terrible year, I could easily see the players voting him in entirely on reputation in spite of the numbers just as Jason Varitek was in 2008. On the flipside, reputation could very well hurt a guy like Ryan Braun as I can imagine a lot of players still refusing to vote for him after his PED fiasco from a few years ago. As such this spot is a toss up for me so I’m guessing the other two outfield spots go to Marte who is among the league leaders in steals and batting average, and Bruce who is the Reds’ best overall player.

Player Balloting: Pitchers (8)

SP: Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
SP: Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
SP: Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants
SP: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
SP: Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
RP: Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
RP: Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
RP: Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates

The starting pitching in the NL this year is absolutely absurd. Maybe a Cueto or a Syndergaard will fall off the actual player ballot, but I can’t fathom any of these five not making the team with the kind of years they’ve had. Kershaw would have had to be the one in line to make the start but with him going on the DL this week that duty might fall to Arrieta instead which is about as great of a Plan B as you could possibly have.

Trying to forecast the relievers is a much tougher call. I’ll give the nod to Jansen and Melancon who are having solid seasons and have a reputation. In spite of his relatively inflated ERA compared to his peers, Familia is the league leader in saves, has a regular season consecutive saves streak that dates back to August 1st of last year, and was viewed as a snub last year so I think he will get some love.

Managerial Selections (9)

C: Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers
1B: Wil Myers, San Diego Padres
SS: Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
3B: Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
OF: Odubel Herrera, Philadelphia Phillies

SP: Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins
SP: Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
SP: Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
RP: Fernando Rodney, Miami Marlins

Five teams are missing representation: the Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Braves, and the hometown Padres. The Marlins’ spot is the easiest one to fill as Fernandez is a slam dunk choice for the pitching staff. There are nearly always three catchers on the All Star team, so Lucroy wins out over Wilson Ramos to satisfy the Milwaukee requirement. Herrera is simply the best player on the Phillies so he should make it as an extra outfielder.

The trade of Rodney to the Marlins seemingly makes Wil Myers a lock to be the Padres rep, although I think both will make it anyway as usually even the bad host teams will have two reps and Rodney still sorta counts towards that. That leaves the dumpster fire Braves whose best options would be pitchers: Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino. Collins watched Teheran fire 17 shutout innings against his Mets over the last two weeks so that might give him the leg up

It’s already a very Cub-heavy team but Lester has just been far too good to leave off. Trevor Story has been one of the best, well, stories in the NL so he should definitely be there. The last spot then goes to Carpenter who would give Collins versatility at 2B and 3B. If my prediction of Jay Bruce getting voted in by the players ends up not coming true, Collins is going to need to get creative to squeeze Bruce, Adam Duvall, or Zack Cozart on to rep Cincinnati.

Final Vote Possibilities

Here’s the point where you realize how deep the league really is. MLB rules require a minimum of 13 pitchers to be named to the roster. This projection only has 12. In that case, Collins would need to load up his Final Vote list with arms to fill the requirement. Another Cub starter such as John Lackey or Jason Hammel could be in the mix. Stephen Strasburg is on the DL but would still have the numbers to warrant the honor of being selected. A guy like Drew Pomeranz or Ryan Buchter could give Padres fans a chance to add another hometown player. Closers like Vizcaino, A.J. Ramos, or Hector Rondon could be in play. Lastly, don’t forget about Hwan Seung Oh who has been probably the best non-closing reliever in the NL.

Should one of those pitchers make the initial roster to free up Collins to nominate position players for his Final Vote, I’m thinking it would mostly consist of names already mentioned: Diaz, Braun, Ramos, Duvall, and Cozart could all be viable choices. Gregory Polanco could be an option in an already crowded group of outfielders along with any one of three Marlins: Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and, yes, Ichiro Suzuki. Ichiro making one last All Star team would be a very nice send off for him, actually.




American League

Starting Lineup (9)

C: Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
1B: Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
2B: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
SS: Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
3B: Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
OF: Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston Red Sox
OF: Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals
OF: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
DH: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox

Perez and Ortiz’ elections to their respective positions are a mere formality based on the most recent poll, the only debate is which of the two will garner the highest vote total. The one change I made from the poll is Cain overtaking Mookie Betts for a starting outfield spot. Cain was a very narrow fourth place but he has the ballot box stuffing Royals fans behind him and Betts’ recent injury might have lost him some late votes. To be blunt, I hope I’m wrong on this one because the pool of outfielders is very deep this year and Cain, while a nice player, could prevent someone more deserving from making the team.

I can’t object to any of the other starters. In particular the competitions all along the infield are between two players who are certainly going to make the team one way or another. Trout will be making his fifth All Star appearance at just 24 years old, he might break the record before he is all said and done.

Player Balloting: Position Players (9)

C: Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles
1B: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
2B: Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners
SS: Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
3B: Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays
OF: Carlos Beltran, New York Yankees
OF: Ian Desmond, Texas Rangers
OF: Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles
DH: Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays

The infield didn’t really take too much thought, and I’d be stunned if any of Cabrera, Cano, Lindor, or Donaldson failed to make the team. Wieters is one of only three AL catchers with a respectable batting line, so his election is sensible. The backup DH is always hard to forecast. I believe Nelson Cruz has the best case in terms of raw numbers, however much like with Ryan Braun I believe his PED history could cause some of his fellow players to steer clear, paving the way for Encarnacion to make it instead.

I had a much tougher time trying to decide which three outfielders the players are most likely to vote on. In the end I settled on Beltran who is a respected veteran in the midst of a career resurgence, Desmond whose transition to the outfield has been one of the better stories in baseball, and Trumbo who is amongst the league leaders in home runs. Ned Yost will have no shortage of other deserving outfielders to choose from to fill out the roster later.

Player Balloting: Pitchers (8)

SP: Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays
SP: Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
SP: Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians
SP: Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
SP: Steven Wright, Boston Red Sox
RP: Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
RP: Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals
RP: Andrew Miller, New York Yankees

I certainly can’t make an argument against any of these five starters. Sale would have to figure to be the top choice to get the start for the Junior Circuit. Hamels and Salazar have been the best pitchers on two of the best teams in baseball. Estrada has built on his quality campaign from a year ago with an even better one this year. Wright is leading the league in ERA and channeling his inner 2012 R.A. Dickey.

It’d be tough for the players to make a wrong choice on relievers with how many incredible ones there have been in the AL. Britton has been the best closer in the game this year, Davis is having another brilliant year and has built a reputation of dominance, and Miller is striking out nearly two batters an inning.

Managerial Selections (7)

C: Stephen Vogt, Oakland Athletics
SS: Eduardo Nunez, Minnesota Twins
3B: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays

SP: Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
RP: Dellin Betances, New York Yankees
RP: Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals
RP: Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox

The A’s, Rays, and Twins are the only three teams yet to be called, and conveniently the most obvious representatives from each of those teams plays a different position. Vogt fills the unofficially required third catcher role, Nunez fills a sort of utility role, and Longoria is the face of his franchise and the type of star that deserves recognition at an All Star Game.

I suspect Yost will take at least one more starter to give him the luxury of extra innings if necessary. Personally Tillman wouldn’t be my preference but his 10 wins might stand out to Yost. Beyond that though I think Yost will repeat last year’s strategy of loading up on hard throwing relievers for this game. Herrera will be rewarded by his manager for a second year in a row as a set up man, and Betances will join his teammate Miller. Would it be overkill to include Aroldis Chapman and have the entire BMC trio available? Given that the objective is to win, probably not. However given that Chapman missed a month to suspension I will guess that he instead opts for a guy who has been around all year like Kimbrel.

Final Vote Possibilities

That guys like Betts and Cruz aren’t yet on this projected roster is quite an indictment of how convoluted the voting process can be. I hope it doesn’t end up like this in reality. Along with them, other potential bats that could be in play for the Final Vote depending on how Yost wants to use the spot could include: Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Adrian Beltre, and Dustin Pedroia.

Alternatively, maybe Yost wants to roll with 14 pitchers and give himself maximum flexibility on his pitching staff. If he wants another relief arm you’re looking at guys like Chapman, Steve Cishek, Roberto Osuna, Brad Brach, and Will Harris. Extra starter options (several of whom I prefer to Tillman, frankly) could include the Josh Tomlin, Trevor Bauer, and Corey Kluber trio from Cleveland, a Rookie of the Year candidate in Michael Fulmer, or guys like Aaron Sanchez, Colby Lewis, and Jose Quintana.