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Two days until the Hall of Fame class is announced and because I'm a geek for the Hall - 50% of the ballots are now public and, while unlikely, there is still a fighting chance that the BBWAA could elect five players in one class for the first time since the inaugural HOF class of 1936. Raines (91.5%) and Bagwell (89.2%) both felt like safe bets coming in to this year and fans of theirs may very well have booked trips a while ago. But Pudge (78.4%), Vlad (74.2%), and Hoffman (72.8%) are all right there.
Given that the pool of voters who won't announce the ballot early likely trends older and therefore more strict about PED implications, I'm thinking Pudge will end up falling just short this year. A phrase I've read from some voters who did not go for Vlad are that they feel he is worthy of the HOF but not good enough where he should get in first ballot, which is an even higher honor. Seems silly to me, but he'll likely miss out this year because of it. Hoffman might still have the best chance at sneaking in as a third man as older voters tend to favor saves a lot more.
No matter which of the three miss out, they're all very likely to go in someday. Historically once you get to around the 60-65% voting threshold it just becomes a matter of time. Edgar Martinez and Mussina are in that range...and so are Bonds and Clemens. It's going to be such an awkwardly fun ceremony if/when those two eventually make it.
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