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**Evil Vito** · 12-21-2016, 10:59 AM

Only about 20% of the ballots have been made public so far, but the early returns are looking very favorable for Bagwell and Raines to make their overdue trips to Cooperstown. Both are polling at around 90%, which is way higher than they were at this point in the voting last year.

Those seem to be the only two clear projectable inductees right now. Pudge, Vlad, and Hoffman are all hovering right around the 75% threshold but there's plenty of time for that to drop.

I have nothing against Hoffman, but that he's very likely to go in soon while Wagner may not even get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot another year feels like an egregious mistake. I don't know how you could vote for one and not the other unless you're blindly following the saves stat, which is just punishing Wagner for deciding to not extend his career into his 40s when he was great in his last year and clearly could've kept going if he wanted to. I don't know if Aroldis Chapman has desensitized voters to how ridiculous Wagner was but when he was around it was unheard of to have a dude coming out of the bullpen throwing 98 with his left arm. At his best he was practically unhittable. He might be the second best reliever of all time behind Rivera.

Bonds and Clemens have also seen a huge surge from where they've been in recent years. It's likely not going to be enough to get them in this year but it's now a very real possibility that they are going to make it before their ten years on the ballot are up. Several voters have gone on record of saying they decided that Selig being put into the HOF now makes it impossible for them to overlook Bonds and Clemens any more.

Manny is still probably never going to make it and A-Rod might have trouble too once he's eligible. Voters are now drawing a line between using steroids before there was testing and willfully cheating after testing was implemented.

Schilling has taken the biggest fall so far, losing at least a dozen voters who had voted for him last year. With voters limited to ten selections and there clearly being more than ten deserving players, it does appear Schilling's hateful comments are what has put him on the chopping block.

12-21-2016, 10:59 AM	#9696
Evil Vito President of Freedonia Posts: 58,197	Only about 20% of the ballots have been made public so far, but the early returns are looking very favorable for Bagwell and Raines to make their overdue trips to Cooperstown. Both are polling at around 90%, which is way higher than they were at this point in the voting last year. Those seem to be the only two clear projectable inductees right now. Pudge, Vlad, and Hoffman are all hovering right around the 75% threshold but there's plenty of time for that to drop. I have nothing against Hoffman, but that he's very likely to go in soon while Wagner may not even get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot another year feels like an egregious mistake. I don't know how you could vote for one and not the other unless you're blindly following the saves stat, which is just punishing Wagner for deciding to not extend his career into his 40s when he was great in his last year and clearly could've kept going if he wanted to. I don't know if Aroldis Chapman has desensitized voters to how ridiculous Wagner was but when he was around it was unheard of to have a dude coming out of the bullpen throwing 98 with his left arm. At his best he was practically unhittable. He might be the second best reliever of all time behind Rivera. Bonds and Clemens have also seen a huge surge from where they've been in recent years. It's likely not going to be enough to get them in this year but it's now a very real possibility that they are going to make it before their ten years on the ballot are up. Several voters have gone on record of saying they decided that Selig being put into the HOF now makes it impossible for them to overlook Bonds and Clemens any more. Manny is still probably never going to make it and A-Rod might have trouble too once he's eligible. Voters are now drawing a line between using steroids before there was testing and willfully cheating after testing was implemented. Schilling has taken the biggest fall so far, losing at least a dozen voters who had voted for him last year. With voters limited to ten selections and there clearly being more than ten deserving players, it does appear Schilling's hateful comments are what has put him on the chopping block.